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San Joaquin Valley employment up 0.4% while rest of state suffers 2% drop, crops set output record: Valley awash in surplus crops, especially almonds

 

by Lowell Ashbaugh

July 9, 2009 -- Here are some interesting quotes from the ValleyEcon blog:

Last Friday on the jobs report - 'Interestingly, year-year farm job estimates are -2% for the state, but the San Joaquin Valley is actually up 0.4%. I haven't gone through the data to locate the declining regions, but the farm data can be noisy month to month. Still, we have yet to see any negative farm numbers in the region that is the heart of the "water crisis."

Last Monday on the Fresno County crops report - 'The state's largest farm county set another output record, $5.66 billion, up over $300 million from the 2007 record, and up $2.5 billion over the last decade. Congratulations to all those who contributed to the record. Not too many industries managed 6% revenue growth in 2008, and growth over each of the preceding 7 years.'

Friday, June 5 - 'Actually, the Valley is currently awash in surplus crops, especially milk and almonds. The human species will survive just fine with a little less food production in the Valley. (and many farmers will be better off too, although there are certainly some that will lose and they are the one's screaming the loudest).

The fish vs. people argument is wrong. Protecting salmon from extermination in California is very much in the interest of people and has great economic value. '

Thursday, June 4 - 'Are you upset about corporate bailouts? Don't think Wall Street or automakers will pay back taxpayers? Concerned about the national debt?Read this GAO report on how irrigated agriculture on the Westside of the Valley is progressing on repaying their interest free loans over the decades. Forget about barely paying back the principal, the interest subsidy undiscussed in the GAO report is by far the biggest expense.

One recurring criticism in the Wall Street and GM bailouts has been their employees generous pay and benefits. It sure would be nice for the Valley and all the struggling workers on the Westside if that was the reason the Westlands and San Luis water contractors couldn't pay.'

Saturday, May 9 - 'Growers south of the Delta water pumps are griping about the devastating impact of the water shortage on almond orchards. However, here is an interesting quote from an almond grower who says we are producing too many almonds. He would like to see less production. "But growers, such as Veldstra, are under pressure to cut costs as that supply is translating into low nut prices."They're priced under the cost of the production," he said. "It's painful. From a grower's perspective, I would probably would like to see (the crop estimate) a little lower, 13.5 (billion pounds) or under just to support the price, but it is what it is."

Wednesday, May 6 - 'No mention is made of the thousands of jobs lost in construction, real estate, government, restaurants, and more due to the foreclosure crisis, 50% drop in local real estate values, etc.; all of which occurred before and that dwarf any farm impact. The struggles of these local businesses are all blamed on reduced income of farm laborers: espresso sales, a boutique women's clothing store, and wine shop.'

 

There's a lot more if you go back a little farther. And the way the unemployment numbers are calculated is really misleading. It exaggerates the difference between the overall county and the County Designated Place no matter which way it goes. That is, those CDPs that had lower unemployment than the county in 2000 will look better overall than those CDPs that were higher as the county unemployment goes up. It's all calculational fiction. But that doesn't matter to those who are crying wolf over the "lack of water."